na barcharts je zajimavy clanek od Tima Hannagana. Prijde mi to pasujici do diskuzniho vlakna k seasonals. Kdyz k tomu reknu svuj nazor. V podstate jde o to, ze s narustajicim vlivem hedgeovych fondu a velkych penez v komoditach, se narusuji klasicke sezonnosti. Radi tem obycejnym farmarum co jsou v businesse a delaji to jako za starych casu, aby tak necinili a utrhli si taky trochu z kolace. Jsou tam tendence k rustum a propadum. Tvrdi ze pokud nebude extremni nadbytek zasob, bude diky kontrole z jejich strany hnana cena grains do sveho maxima mezi koncem cervna a zarim, a ze rozdily mezi skliznovou cenou a touto budou znacne. Co z toho plyne pro nas. Jakmile skonci sklizen kukurice a soji,, zacit hledat long signaly.
LOOK WHO IS DEALING NOW
Tim Hannagan of PFGBest - InsideFutures.com - 1 hr 53 mins ago
……. Prior to the historic high grain moves in 2008, a change in the roster of grain Shakers and movers took place. The years prior saw daily price action controlled by large individual traders and 5 to 10 million dollar seasoned agricultural trading funds while commercial exporting and processing companies controlled the seasonal trends. They said if you wanted to make money follow the commercials as they are the big money in grains. The problem here was it was in the commercials best interest to keep prices down when growers went to harvest and needed to sell grain to pay debt due at harvest time. Commercials are what developed in the grain market what was known as the seasonal trend. They bought the grain at seasonal harvest time low cash prices, often the low of the year and sold to feeders, processors and importing countries at seasonal demand time high prices, often the highs of the year. Then the government changed the laws to allow money from stock trading companies to trade commodities, once considered too risky. These monies were sitting in massive billion dollar conservative stock managed accounts. Monies from teacher, auto and private company pension funds and such. Overnight we went from trading 5 to10 million dollar agricultural minded funds to 50 to 100 billion dollar index trading funds. The government saw the opportunity to get these conservative traded dollars, whose returns paled by comparison to the aggressive speculative and profit soaring speculative stock funds to have the window open for large return potential as well. The problem was these index funds were considered hedge accounts with no trading limits on positions. They could only buy long the market, leaving selling as only a profit-taking result. Since these new monies originated from the stock market mindset, it was easy for the money managers to keep buying just like years of stock buying had trained them. After all, they knew little of fundamentals of commodities. They didn't know a bushel of corn from a phone booth and didn't care. They were technicians whose trading psychology was 90% charts. There pattern was to keep buying any news that entered the market and only sell when month-end neared. Many of these funds had clauses in their contracts that allowed them to pay handsome bonuses on profits taken before month-end . If not taken, bonuses were not earned. This was a easy decision for them. A quick look at monthly charts will show a regular pattern of month-end profit-taking still in practice. Understanding this practice is important for traders in preparing their own trading strategy. This trigger of profit-taking comes after rallies with little concern as to the time of the month but more often than not they occur after the 10th and before the final three days of the month. These large index funds and their aggressive and never-ending buying found themselves in government scrutiny in 2009. In 2008 we saw these billion dollar mega market movers push corn, beans, wheat and even crude oil to historic high prices on seemingly no other reason than they could. They took wheat prices so high on the Minneapolis wheat exchange, with futures bids pushing $25 per bushel with lock limit up trading for days on end. It almost toppled the exchange due to trader fears that the exchange was no longer a viable trading platform. The exchange is still recovering from the event. The government took heat from grain companies, energy users to feeders of livestock and beyond to stop the madness they witnessed. It was destroying their businesses in need of stable markets to near bankruptcy as seen from the ethanol producer bankruptcies that followed. In the fall of 2009 congressional leaders were threatening to place position limits on these index funds, to try and stop out-of-control price trading and market manipulation. This was the choice of last result on several fronts. Not all this new commodity trading money came from the U.S., but huge foreign trading entities. The U.S. government feared that trading restrictions would drive monies away from U.S. exchanges to foreign country trading exchanges surfacing all over the world. They felt we had to keep money here to maintain the U.S. as the largest and safest trading exchanges in the world. The U.S. exchanges also were reluctant to push for trading limits as soaring open interest and daily trading volume led to untold exchange income being made from contract exchange fees. Last but not least, our government regulatory agency, The National Futures Association of the commodity markets, went from being understaffed and unfunded too powerful and influential from the monies from each contract traded with a N.F.A. fee. Everyone had a vested interest in these manipulating funds but needed to get at least a understanding that too much couldn't last. This led to index funds taking collective control of them selves with self-management. 2010 has seen these funds take a different and less threatening approach to their trading, yet managing to push near record volume and open interest keeping their vast wealth at work. The first change came as they went to trading more spreads. Long one month and short another. Spreads are recognized as a single trade. so It doesn't violate their hedge status and rule of only being able place long positions. The second change was buying into contracts on years much further out. Coming up with strategies that have them buying long one and two years out on futures delivery dates, rather than front end loading. This has created a wealth of opportunity for farmers in long-term hedge strategies. The final self-management change by index funds, was no piling on. This year saw strong fundamental news that in the three prior years would have funds pushing prices up all spring into Summer. News like record Chinese buying of U.S. beans. The Chinese stopped selling corn to surrounding Asian neighbors, who turned to the U.S. to fill their import needs, setting corn up for a record U.S. export year. And the ever present crop problems in foreign exporting countries. Instead, they bought, then sold what they bought, over and over. A simple review of the grain charts from January through June shows this pattern. Only the recent crop fears over production from the European Union nations under drought conditions with Russia featured as having the worst summer drought in 50 years to record floods in Pakistan devastating crops, have we seen an extended rally. The U.S. government sees it as a reasonable price trend with no daily limit price moves and helps the market function to its purpose and that is for the market to ration crops. Funds like these are not going away but getting better organized and even expanding. 2011 will see a new index funds enter out of China that will throw 29 billion dollars at agricultural futures. The key to survival and then prosperity for agricultural businesses such as farmers, feeders, processors and grain exporters is understanding the monthly trading patterns of these funds and avoid what used to be traditional seasonal selling of grain and understand fund seasonals . Traditional hedging patterns no longer work. Funds continue to price yearly highs on their seasonal time and that’s between June 20 and September 20 when they have shown the last three years they will max out their buying over growing season uncertainties. Growers who sell only the grain needed at harvest to cover debt due at harvest time. Then lock the rest up until the fund seasonal exhaustion high buying period ends, will be on track for maximum profit potential.